Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has confirmed a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, a fast-growing crypto-based prediction market. The deal could value Polymarket at up to $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. ICE, which has a market value of more than $90 billion, has a long history of investing in financial infrastructure and emerging technology. Its backing is expected to strengthen Polymarket’s credibility and help it return to the U.S. market after years of regulatory challenges.
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, lets users bet on yes-or-no questions covering topics such as politics, sports, and entertainment. The platform uses blockchain technology to make betting transparent and secure. It first gained attention for its accurate predictions during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where trading volumes reached over $2 billion. The company is privately owned and counts Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund among its early investors.
The New York-based startup has faced legal hurdles. In 2022, it settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused it of running an unlicensed offshore gambling platform. After that settlement, U.S. users were blocked from participating. The Federal Bureau of Investigation later seized Coplan’s phone as part of a broader probe, but investigations have since ended. Coplan said “justice prevailed” when Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice and CFTC had closed their cases.
Polymarket’s relationship with regulators has improved under the Trump administration, which has taken a more crypto-friendly stance. Donald Trump Jr. joined the company’s advisory board this summer, and his venture-capital firm 1789 Capital became an investor. Polymarket has also bought a small U.S.-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, allowing it to re-enter the American market legally.
Intercontinental Exchange’s decision fits its pattern of identifying early shifts in financial markets. ICE’s chief executive, Jeffrey Sprecher, is known for building exchange infrastructure that supports new asset classes. He is married to Kelly Loeffler, a Trump ally who heads the Small Business Administration and formerly served in the U.S. Senate. ICE’s investment signals that prediction markets are moving closer to the financial mainstream.
Interest in prediction platforms has surged recently. Kalshi, a rival to Polymarket, was valued at $2 billion earlier this year after strong trading linked to NFL contracts. Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood Markets has drawn new users and controversy. Gambling regulators argue that sports prediction markets blur the line between regulated gaming and financial trading.
Polymarket’s rise reflects how blockchain and crypto are changing the way people speculate on real-world events. With backing from ICE, Founders Fund, and 1789 Capital, the platform may gain the regulatory footing and legitimacy it needs to compete with Kalshi and other players. For ICE, the investment reinforces its role as a key bridge between traditional finance and the expanding crypto economy.
