Deutsche Bank’s new report points to a clear shift: central banks holding bitcoin could become normal by 2030. The call lands as gold and bitcoin hit records this week. Gold neared $3,990 an ounce. Bitcoin crossed $126,000. Investors are looking for safe-haven assets. They want protection during global uncertainty and they want assets that do not move in lockstep with stocks and bonds.
The Deutsche Bank bitcoin report says bitcoin is gaining status as a reserve asset. Today, central bank reserves focus on gold and foreign currencies. Reserves help a country support its currency and steady its economy. The bank argues bitcoin could sit next to gold as a strategic reserve. The case includes better market plumbing, clearer rules, and a wider base of institutional adoption of bitcoin.
Liquidity is the first pillar. Bitcoin liquidity is improving as more institutions trade and custody it. Liquidity means you can buy or sell without moving the price much. Deeper order books, larger ETF volumes, and more market makers point in the same direction. That matters for central banks holding bitcoin because reserve managers need to move size with limited slippage.
Regulation is the second pillar. Crypto regulation maturation is underway in many regions. Clearer rules on custody, accounting, market abuse, and taxation reduce operational risk. When rules are clear, balance sheet allocation to bitcoin becomes more credible. Large banks, auditors, and custodians can follow standard playbooks.
Volatility is the third pillar. Price swings still happen, but bitcoin volatility decline is real compared with past years. The Deribit Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) fell from about 60 at the start of the year to near 39 this week. DVOL is a market-based reading of expected swings, similar to how the VIX works for equities. Lower DVOL makes bitcoin easier to model for reserve managers who answer to boards and risk committees.
The asset’s features also support the thesis. Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap creates scarcity that policy cannot change. Its decentralized design limits single points of failure. Portability and 24/7 transfer rails make settlement fast compared with gold bars. It shows low correlation with stocks and bonds at key times, which helps central bank reserves diversification. That mix—scarcity, portability, and low correlation—fits the stated goals of reserve managers at the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan.
Dollar weakness is part of the backdrop. The US Dollar Index, known as DXY, has dropped more than nine percent this year. Policy fights, budget strains, and trade tensions add noise to the dollar story. Over two decades, the dollar’s share of global reserves slid from around 60 percent to near 41 percent as more countries diversify. At the same time, gold’s share rose as central banks bought more metal. De-dollarization trends are slow, but they are visible. In that setting, central banks holding bitcoin moves from fringe idea to debated option.
Geopolitics adds another angle. Some state actors seek payment channels outside the dollar system. Reports of Russia-linked crypto activity and attempts to route around SWIFT highlight that pressure. Policymakers weigh those risks when they think about crypto and sanctions, but they also study how to hold transparent assets with clean custody and audit trails. The Deutsche Bank bitcoin report focuses on lawful reserve use, yet the sanctions debate pushes governments to understand the rails.
Corporate treasuries offer a preview. More than 200 public firms and over 60 private firms now show corporate treasuries bitcoin holdings on their balance sheets. Together they hold about 1.3 million bitcoin, worth roughly $165 billion, or almost six percent of supply. Many follow the playbook popularized by Michael Saylor’s firm, now called Saylor Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy. Their approach uses debt, cash flow, and treasury policy to add a bitcoin reserve asset. While companies differ from countries, the adoption path shows how accounting, custody, and risk control can work at scale.
Skeptics note the risks. Bitcoin can fall fast. Policy can change. Tech failures can happen. Supporters answer that market structure is stronger now, with institutional-grade custody, insurance, and multi-signature controls. ETFs and futures bring transparency. Independent audits and chain analytics improve compliance. For central banks holding bitcoin, the practical question is not ideology but process: can they trade it, store it, value it, and explain it?
Market structure keeps evolving. Exchange depth has grown. Spreads are tighter. More venues quote block trades for large tickets. These steps make it easier to handle sovereign-size orders. As liquidity improves and regulation matures, the gap between gold as strategic reserve and bitcoin as reserve asset narrows.
If central banks do take this step, they may start small. A pilot allocation could be a fraction of one percent of reserves. Managers would track correlation, liquidity, and DVOL under stress. They would compare bitcoin vs gold during risk-off moves and test operational playbooks. If results match the thesis, allocations could rise over time, much like how some countries scaled up gold purchases in recent years.
No central bank has formally disclosed bitcoin as part of its official reserves yet. A few governments have seized or acquired small amounts in legal cases or pilots, but they do not treat those holdings as strategic reserve. The Deutsche Bank bitcoin report does not claim a date certain. It outlines a pathway from now to 2030 in which central banks holding bitcoin is plausible, based on liquidity, regulation, volatility, and demand for reserve diversification during dollar weakness and de-dollarization trends.
For readers tracking the story, the key signals are simple. Watch DXY for dollar momentum. Watch DVOL for market risk. Watch ETF flows and order book depth for bitcoin liquidity improving. Watch policy milestones that enable lawful custody and accounting. If those lines keep moving the same way, the odds rise that central banks holding bitcoin becomes part of the mainstream reserve toolkit by 2030.
