The ETH price chart shows a clean break lower after a flat range. Through most of the day, the ETH price moved sideways with weak highs and a series of lower peaks. Each bounce lost strength. Volume thinned into the U.S. session, then the ETH price failed near $4,350 and turned down. The drop accelerated once $4,250 gave way. Sellers stepped in as resting bids thinned. The last leg took the ETH price under $4,150 and printed fresh lows near $4,100. The tape shows heavy selling pressure and a lack of real demand on the way down. That is bearish for the next sessions.
This pattern looks like a distribution range that ended with a breakdown. The ETH price built a shelf between $4,250 and $4,350. Bulls could not reclaim the prior swing high. Each rally topped out faster. That points to supply sitting over the market. The wick near the top of the session hints at rejection. When price slipped under the mid-range, volume picked up. That confirms sellers had control. Ethereum technical analysis favors follow-through when a range breaks with rising volume and weak bids below.
Support now sits at $4,100, then $4,000. I expect the ETH price to test those levels soon. If $4,000 breaks on a closing basis, the next zone is $3,900 to $3,850, where we last saw active buying. Below that, a pocket sits near $3,750. This pocket lines up with a gap from a fast move up earlier in the month. Fast moves often get filled when momentum flips. The current ETH price action shows that flip. Lower highs, lower lows, and a failing retest of broken support define the trend. Trend followers will likely sell rips back into $4,200 to $4,250.
Momentum tools would back this read. After a failure at $4,350, a simple moving average cross on short time frames likely turned down. A daily RSI near prior overbought readings would be rolling over. A MACD bear cross would trail the price move and add fuel for system sellers. These are common signals in an Ethereum technical analysis playbook, and they tend to stack after a failed breakout and a volume spike down.
Volume tells the rest of the story. During the drift higher, traded volume faded. On the drop, volume expanded. That is classic bearish confirmation. The ETH price fell faster than it rose. That change in character often marks the start of a larger pullback. Liquidity near $4,000 looks thin. If sellers press, stops below round numbers can turn into market orders. That kind of flow can push the ETH price to $3,900 without much pause. If buyers want control again, they need to win back $4,250 with strong volume and hold it as support. Until that happens, sellers have the edge.
Order flow bias favors supply. The failed attempt to hold $4,200 shows that passive bids stepped away. Large players tend to distribute inside ranges, then let price slide once inventory is offloaded. The ETH price structure fits that script. A bounce can happen at any time, but rallies into prior support now act as supply zones. I would watch $4,180 to $4,220 for signs of absorption and fresh selling. If the ETH price tags that band and volume dries up, the next leg down could follow.
For traders, risk is clear. Bears can lean on the $4,250 cap. Bulls need to wait for acceptance back above that line. Ethereum price prediction models that rely on trend and volume would mark down the path of least resistance as lower. The ETH price forecast over the near term points to a grind down into $4,000, a stop run through that level, and a test of $3,900. If panic hits, $3,750 comes into view. Only a strong reclaim of $4,250 to $4,300 would shift this Ethereum price outlook back to neutral.
The market has moved far, yet the technicals do not show capitulation. That keeps risk skewed to the downside. ETH price action is weak, volume supports the move, and key levels have flipped to resistance. Until buyers print a wide green candle on real volume and defend it, the base case remains a bearish breakdown with rallies sold. Ethereum technical analysis points to more downside risk than upside reward at current levels.
