Bitcoin slid under $63,000 on Thursday and rattled traders. Weak U.S. job data, a softer stock market, and fresh worry about an AI spending boom pushed investors toward safety. In that mix, many asked one question: can Bitcoin rebound to $90,000 by March?
A key clue sits in Bitcoin options. Bitcoin options let traders buy insurance or take a view on price without owning BTC. Because Bitcoin options trade every day, Bitcoin options often show mood shifts before spot markets calm down. Right now, Bitcoin options look cautious.
On Deribit, a major crypto derivatives exchange, traders priced the March 27 contract that pays off above $90,000 at a low level. That $90,000 call option traded near $522. In plain terms, Bitcoin options buyers did not pay much for a big upside swing. Using common pricing tools such as Black-Scholes, that call price implies odds under 6% for $90,000 by late March. Bitcoin options also show demand for crash protection. A March 27 put option near the $50,000 strike traded around $1,380, implying roughly a one-in-five chance of a much deeper drop.
Those numbers do not predict the future. They show what traders are willing to pay right now. Bitcoin options turn crowd emotion into “implied volatility,” a market estimate of how hard price could whip around. When implied volatility rises, Bitcoin options cost more because risk feels higher. When implied volatility falls, Bitcoin options get cheaper because traders expect calmer trading. The current mix says traders see limited upside and meaningful downside risk in the next several weeks.
Macro stress helps explain why Bitcoin options lean defensive. New layoff data hit the tape as crypto slipped. U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, up 118% from January 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. It was the biggest January total since 2009. Job cuts like that can weaken risk appetite. When investors rush to reduce exposure, Bitcoin options often price less chance of a fast rebound and more demand for protection.
Equities added to the pressure. Bitcoin’s recent drop tracked losses in several large listed companies tied to payments, trading, and software. When stocks wobble, Bitcoin often trades like a high-beta asset, rising and falling with broader risk sentiment. That link matters because many funds use Bitcoin options to hedge, so shaky equities can lift Bitcoin options premiums on the downside.
Another driver is the AI spending debate. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, said it expects 2026 capital spending around $175 billion to $185 billion. That is far above what many analysts expected and has raised questions about returns on data-center builds. When investors doubt the “AI trade,” they often cut exposure across growth assets. That shift can show up quickly in Bitcoin options, since traders reach for puts when they fear a wider selloff.
A newer fear also hangs over Bitcoin options: quantum computing. The worry is not that today’s machines can crack Bitcoin, but that future systems could threaten older cryptography if they advance fast. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood recently removed a Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio and cited quantum risk. Headlines like that can weigh on sentiment, and Bitcoin options price uncertainty even when the timeline is unclear.
Traders also watch corporate Bitcoin reserves. Some public companies built large BTC holdings using debt or new shares. If Bitcoin stays weak for long, those firms could face pressure to refinance, raise cash, or cut risk. Investors fear forced selling because it can speed up declines. When that fear rises, Bitcoin options demand for downside hedges can rise too.
So what would have to change for a $90,000 push by March? Bitcoin options would likely show it first through stronger demand for upside calls and higher prices for $90,000 strikes. Traders would also want calmer macro news, steadier stocks, and less stress around AI spending plans. A bounce can happen in a rough market, but a move that large usually needs fuel from risk-on flows and fresh spot buying that spills into Bitcoin options.
For now, Bitcoin options suggest $90,000 is possible but not the base case for March. That does not rule out a rally. It means traders are not paying much for that outcome today. At the same time, Bitcoin options show many still want protection if the slide deepens.
