Michael Saylor says he is not worried about Strategy’s credit risk even as Bitcoin slides. He says the company planned for ugly markets. In his view, Bitcoin can drop hard and stay low, and the company can still operate. His plan is simple: if Bitcoin stays weak for years, Strategy will refinance its debt and push maturities forward.
Saylor made the comments on CNBC as Bitcoin traded below $70,000 in early February 2026. He said Strategy will keep buying Bitcoin every quarter and will not sell what it already owns. Strategy holds about 714,644 Bitcoin. The company paid an average price near $76,056 per coin, so the position moves into an unrealized loss when Bitcoin stays below that level.
Debt sits at the center of the debate. Strategy used equity sales and large amounts of convertible notes to build a Bitcoin treasury. Saylor says the firm can “roll” debt forward if Bitcoin drops 90% and stays down for four years. He also says the balance sheet includes enough cash to cover interest and preferred dividends for more than two years, which reduces near-term pressure. Critics counter that refinancing depends on market access and investor appetite, which can change fast in a deep risk-off cycle.
The market has turned more defensive. Strategy’s stock often trades like a high-beta version of Bitcoin, so it can rise faster in rallies and fall harder in sell-offs. That link helped drive a huge run from 2020 to 2024, but it also made the stock a popular short. Recent reporting shows short interest rose as Bitcoin fell and as investors focused on the company’s leverage and the size of its convertible debt stack.
At the same time, traders are looking for a clear reason behind the latest Bitcoin drop. One theory points to a blow-up tied to Bitcoin ETF options. Parker White, a former equities trader who now works in crypto, posted that Hong Kong hedge funds may have built large, leveraged bets using call options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, often called IBIT. The theory says those funds borrowed in Japanese yen to fund the trade. That strategy is known as the yen carry trade: borrow in a low-rate currency, then invest elsewhere and hope the spread pays off. If funding costs rise or the trade moves against you, losses can snowball.
White’s idea links several moving parts. If a fund buys out-of-the-money call options, it is betting on a sharp Bitcoin rebound. If Bitcoin keeps falling, those options lose value fast. If the fund also used leverage, it may face forced selling. White adds that stress in other markets, including moves tied to yen funding and a volatile silver market, could have squeezed the same players at the same time. The result, in this telling, is liquidation that drives more selling of IBIT shares and more weakness in Bitcoin. This remains a theory, not a confirmed chain of events, and past Bitcoin crashes often came from more than one trigger.
Still, the timing matters because the options market around Bitcoin ETFs has been changing. Nasdaq filed to remove the old 25,000-contract position cap on options tied to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and reporting says the SEC allowed the change to become effective in late January 2026. If traders can take bigger positions, they can also unwind bigger positions, which can add force to a sharp move in Bitcoin during stressed conditions.
This is where the two stories connect. Strategy represents a long-term, corporate form of Bitcoin demand that uses debt and patience. The Hong Kong hedge fund theory represents short-term, leveraged Bitcoin exposure through ETFs and options. When leverage breaks, it can push Bitcoin down fast. When Bitcoin drops, Strategy’s paper losses grow, and the company faces louder questions about refinancing risk. Saylor says he welcomes the volatility because he believes it draws lenders and traders, not just holders. Markets often see it the other way: volatility raises the cost of capital and makes lenders cautious.
For everyday investors, the key point is not the drama. It is the plumbing. Bitcoin now sits closer to traditional finance than it did in earlier cycles. Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin options, and cross-market funding trades can all affect Bitcoin price moves. That can bring more liquidity, but it can also bring faster liquidations. In that world, Strategy’s bet becomes easier to track: if Bitcoin stays weak, the company must keep paying, keep refinancing, and keep convincing markets it can carry the load. If Bitcoin rebounds, the same leverage can look smart again.
