Right now, we’re in the middle of the most bizarre cryptocurrency bull run in history. Bitcoin’s consolidation and the unpredictable performance of altcoins are making 2024 an entirely different beast compared to the bull runs of 2012, 2016, or even 2020.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been rolling between $53,000 and $74,000 since March when it broke its all-time high twice. Since then, we’ve been in a tight consolidation phase. Traders are watching closely because, historically, this level of consolidation is always followed by a massive surge in October. Some analysts predict Bitcoin might hit $290,000, which would mean a 320% jump from today’s price of about $64,000.
Institutional investors are pouring in money thanks to the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs. This institutional push is driving more demand, and with Bitcoin’s supply being super limited, increased demand consistently boosts its value. It’s basic supply and demand dynamics at work. MicroStrategy, for example, just threw another $472 million at Bitcoin, buying coins at $61,000 each. This shows the intense institutional interest right now due to Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Altcoins are crushing it, with some outperforming Bitcoin by up to 200%. Ethereum (ETH), Solana’s SOL, XRP, and BNB Chain’s BNB are all thriving right now. What’s really nuts is that altcoins are actively outperforming Bitcoin. In previous bull runs, Bitcoin always led the charge, but we’re looking at a significant gap right now. Meme coins have managed to completely dominate this bull cycle. Solana meme coins, in particular, are leading the charge. Meme coins have always been a cultural phenomenon in the crypto industry, but this time they’re literally driving investment trends in the market. Some analysts believe they could make or break the current bull run.
China decided to put $500 billion into an economic stimulus package, which pumped up the markets. Analysts are saying that it’s going to lead to more liquidity and boost confidence among investors. Historical data shows that when China moves big, the markets respond big. And that’s exactly what’s happening now.
Retail investors are back in full force. After a quiet stretch during the last bear market, they’ve returned with a vengeance. This is bringing a whole new level of excitement to the market. There’s even euphoria in the air, as some altcoins have gained over 200% in just a few weeks. People are calling this bull run more sustainable than past ones, though who knows? The numbers look good for now.
The stablecoin reserves on exchanges are super low, which is a sign of potential upward price pressure in crypto. With fewer stablecoins available, it suggests that traders are converting them into cryptocurrencies, increasing demand and potentially driving up prices.
Global economics and geopolitical tensions are also playing a role. Uncertainties in traditional markets and the possibility of more rate cuts from central banks make crypto look even better as an investment. Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, and Israel is threatening retaliation. These tensions have pushed down BTC during the first half of Asia trading hours Wednesday. Global equities and risk assets like Bitcoin took a hit as the Middle East conflict grows.
Bitcoin fell the most in over a month, while gold rose. The drop reached 6% at one point, and 24-hour losses were at 3.5%. That was the worst start for the asset’s historically most bullish month, according to Presto Research traders led by Peter Chung. “Last night’s BTC price action (BTC -4% vs. gold +0.8%) in the aftermath of Iran’s attack is puzzling, especially considering BlackRock’s recent pitch for BTC as a risk-off asset similar to gold,” they wrote. The reality is that the difference in these two assets’ short-term price actions reflects their different maturity phases.
Gold is a much more mature asset, with a 5,000-year history as a store of value, so there’s not much room left for incremental network effects. Bitcoin, on the other hand, shares the same attributes that make gold a good store of value (better in many cases), but with only a 15-year history. This means it’s in the early stages of mainstream adoption, and its narrative is still poorly understood.
The last trading day of September saw a slight dip in the market. Bitcoin fell 3.7%, landing at $63,451 after briefly touching $65,000. Crypto stocks did the same. Coinbase dropped by 6.8%, and MicroStrategy was down 4.3%. Analysts blame this on overbought conditions. Meanwhile, last week, the Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net buying volume of 16,774 BTC. This is way more than the usual monthly supply of newly mined Bitcoin, which is 13,500.
Dogecoin (DOGE) led losses among major tokens with an 8% drop over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. XRP (XRP), Solana’s SOL, BNB Chain’s BNB, and Ethereum (ETH) lost as much as 6%. Smaller tokens with a market cap under $2 billion fared worse, with Sei Network’s SEI, memecoin Floki (FLOKI), and Starknet’s STARK falling as much as 16%.
Media coverage is ramping up too. Crypto is all over the news again, and that’s bringing more people into the market. The CoinDesk 20, a measure of the most liquid digital assets, had its worst drop in weeks, falling 4.7%. This shows that while there is increased participation, there is also increased volatility.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent statements also shook investors, warning that future rate cuts are not set in stone. This uncertainty affects global equities and risk assets such as Bitcoin. The possibility of more rate cuts from central banks makes cryptocurrency investments more appealing to some investors. Analysts are watching to see how these central bank decisions will impact market liquidity and investor confidence.
We’re witnessing the strangest crypto bull run we’ve ever seen. Bitcoin’s consolidation, altcoins outperforming Bitcoin by 200%, institutional investors pouring in thanks to Bitcoin spot ETFs, and meme coins driving investment trends—all these factors are making this bull run unique. The combination of supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, central bank rate cuts, and both institutional and retail investor activity is creating a market environment unlike any before. Whether this bull run is more sustainable than past ones remains to be seen, but for now, the excitement and numbers are promising.
