H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y: V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2017, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng h\u00e0o h\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi Bitcoin v\u00ec gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 16.000 \u0111\u00f4 la. Chuy\u1ec3n nhanh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2022: Bitcoin m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 16.000 \u0111\u00f4 la, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1i lo l\u1eafng. T\u1ea1i sao l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y? B\u00ed m\u1eadt n\u1eb1m \u1edf th\u1ee9 g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain”. C\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y theo d\u00f5i nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi Bitcoin, cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1ed1i v\u1ec1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e2u.<\/p>\n\n
B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u cho b\u1ea1n ba trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t: L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\/\u4e8f l\u1ed7 r\u00f2ng ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n (NUPL), H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Puell v\u00e0 \u0110i\u1ec3m Z MVRV. Ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ti\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u NVT n\u00e2ng cao. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n
S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u tra trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi Bitcoin. Nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i Bitcoin, s\u1ed5 k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u00f4ng khai ghi l\u1ea1i m\u1ecdi giao d\u1ecbch Bitcoin. Th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m di chuy\u1ec3n Bitcoin g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch x\u1eed l\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u1ea9n v\u1ec1 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00e3y coi NUPL nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7t k\u1ebf \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y so s\u00e1nh t\u1ed5ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ho\u1eb7c\u4e8f l\u1ed7 m\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef Bitcoin \u0111ang c\u00f3 (L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\/\u4e8f l\u1ed7 ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n) v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin. Khi NUPL cao, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang c\u00f3 l\u00e3i l\u1edbn v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1edbm mu\u1ed1n r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n. \u0110\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n\n
M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, NUPL th\u1ea5p cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang l\u1ed7 (t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 l\u1ed7) v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 do d\u1ef1 trong vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n. \u0110\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00e1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p>\n\n
Th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o Bitcoin gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00ecm v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1. H\u1ecd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00e1y t\u00ednh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i c\u00e1c c\u00e2u \u0111\u1ed1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn Bitcoin m\u1edbi l\u00e0m ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 h\u00f3a \u0111\u01a1n ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3, v\u00ec v\u1eady h\u1ecd th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00e1n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 Bitcoin c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 trang tr\u1ea3i chi ph\u00ed. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Puell theo d\u00f5i doanh thu m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o ra so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n
Khi doanh thu c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o r\u1ea5t cao (H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Puell trong v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ecf), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng, n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, doanh thu th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o (H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Puell trong v\u00f9ng xanh l\u00e1 c\u00e2y) cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng b\u00e1n, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng Bitcoin gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 qua s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. \u0110i\u1ec3m Z MVRV gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta hi\u1ec3u li\u1ec7u Bitcoin c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd hay th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u01a1i \u0111i\u00ean r\u1ed3 kh\u00f4ng. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y so s\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3 cho nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed3ng Bitcoin m\u00e0 h\u1ecd n\u1eafm gi\u1eef (Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n). \u0110i\u1ec3m Z MVRV cao (v\u00f9ng h\u1ed3ng) cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao, trong khi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ea5p (v\u00f9ng xanh l\u00e1 c\u00e2y) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n
\u0110i\u1ec3m Z MVRV ti\u1ebfn th\u00eam m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1eefa khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “\u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n” \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u1ef1c ti\u1ec3u. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u NVT n\u00e2ng cao theo d\u00f5i m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi Bitcoin b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch quan s\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Bitcoin so v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y trong 90 ng\u00e0y qua. Khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao (v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ecf), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00edn mu\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec3 tho\u00e1i lui. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p (v\u00f9ng xanh l\u00e1 c\u00e2y) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i mua.<\/p>\n\n
M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1. H\u00e3y coi nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1c tham chi\u1ebfu ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o. Lu\u00f4n n\u00ean t\u1ef1 m\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n\n
B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch on-chain v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 ch\u1eb7ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c cao v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a Bitcoin: H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn nh\u1eadp m\u00f4n v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u on-chain H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y: V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2017, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1180,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1177"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1181,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions\/1181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinnewscrypto.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}